We’re about to reach a turning point for the world, one of those rare moments in history when every single thing changes and all the that we relied on before is replaced by something new.
The combination of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine and the pandemic will unleash disruption on a massive scale in many different areas at the same time. I’ve just worked my way through several reports which show how these crises are going to interlock and force huge changes.
- Africa is facing an imminent famine and food disruption. Ukraine provides much of its wheat and fertiliser that the war will devastate.
- An energy crisis looms with shortages and rising prices everywhere, again due to the war.
- The cost of living is going to go through the roof everywhere because the pandemic, particularly in China, is going to disrupt supply chains for a long time.
- The old world order is gone. The US, EU and UK will cleave together, but multiple poles of power will arise elsewhere- China, India and in Africa with countries choosing alliances which best suit them.
It all sounds catastrophic but crisis drives change for the better.
The West will be forced to start caring more for countries suffering in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
The global economic system will have to be rethought with new trade arrangements that provide security for all and are less damaging to the planet.
There will be overwhelming investment in renewable energy systems that will tackle the climate emergency far better than anything we planned before.
We’re a weird species. We only make changes for the better when crisis forces it upon us. But history shows us that times like this always result in something significantly better.
Bottom line: the months ahead are going to be a turbulent time that we’re all going to have to get through.
Everything is going to be smashed down (metaphorically). But in times of crisis the best of people emerges and we’re going to start building a world that’s radically different and incredibly better.
Because there’s going to be no alternative.